ZIMBABWE: Worst-case cholera scenario getting worse 26 January 2009
JOHANNESBURG, 26 January 2009 (IRIN) - Zimbabwe's worst-case cholerascenario, as predicted by the World Health Organisation, is likely to besurpassed within a few weeks and there are still about two months of therainy season left.
In December 2008 the WHO said cholera cases could balloon to 60,000before the rainy season ended in March 2009, but Gregory H=E4rtl,spokesman for the organisation's Epidemic and Pandemic Alert andResponse office in Geneva, told IRIN that as of 25 January, 53,306cholera cases and 2,872 deaths had been recorded since the outbreak began in August 2008.
Cholera, an easily treatable waterborne disease, thrives in poorsanitary conditions and is expected to remain a feature until Zimbabwe'srainy season subsides.
The Herald, a state-owned daily newspaper, trumpeted in its 26 Januaryedition that cholera was on the "retreat" in the capital, Harare, butcautioned that "Cholera is still present in the city, especially thesouthwestern suburbs, and any relaxation in our guard and our efforts will see the caseload explode."
However, H=E4rtl said the conditions causing Zimbabwe's cholera outbreakremained in place. "The systemic underinvestment in water and sanitationinfrastructure and the health system ... These conditions will notchange overnight."
Zimbabwe's cholera death toll has now exceeded the number of people whohave died from the disease in the entire African continent over severalyears: in 2001 (2,590 deaths), 2003 (1,884), 2004 (2,331) and 2005(2,230), according to the WHO. Figures for 2006, 2007 and 2008 were notavailable.
Africa had 4,610 cholera deaths in 2000, and 4,551 in 2002.
The disease has also spread to neighbouring countries. South Africa'sHealth Minister, Barbara Hogan, told a local television station that thecountry's cholera outbreak was a consequence of the spread of the disease from neighbouring Zimbabwe.
According to local media reports, between 15 November and 24 January,5,696 cases were diagnosed in South Africa and 36 people died.
The South African National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD)notes on its website that the disease strain in both South Africa andZimbabwe is Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype Ogawa biotype El Tor.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs(OCHA) said in its regional update on 23 January 2009 that ninecountries in the Southern Africa region were reporting cholera cases:Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland,Zambia and Zimbabwe.
"Trans-border infections have been recorded and cholera is becomingendemic (recurrent throughout the year) in most of the affected countries," OCHA said.
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